Predictors of infection associated with ischemic stroke
Keywords:
ischemic stroke; infection; immunosuppression; predictionAbstract
Introduction: Post-stroke infection, mainly pneumonia and urinary tract infection, is recognized as the most frequent cause of death and worse functional recovery.
Objective: To identify factors that predict post-ischemic stroke infection.
Methods: An observational analytical study of cases and controls was performed nested in a cohort of 1358 patients with ischemic stroke diagnosis; 976 patients were selected divided into two groups (244 cases and 732 controls). For the bivariate and multivariate statistical analysis, the calculation of odds ratio was performed as a risk estimator. The performance of the regression model was evaluated by the adjustment goodness of Hosmer and Lemeshow, square R of Nagelkerke and discriminative capacity by area under the ROC curve.
Results: Of 976 patients, 25.0% had an infection after ischemic stroke. Major independent factors were identified: history of COPD (OR = 4.72; 95% CI = 2.40 - 9.26; p = 0.000); 12 ≥ point NIHSS (OR = 4.62; 95% CI = 2.89 - 7.38; p = 0.000); neurogenic dysphagia (OR = 4.61; 95% CI = 2.76 - 7.71; p = 0.000); overall lymphocyte count < 2300 mm3 (OR = 2.58; 95% CI = 1.57 - 4.24, p = 0.000). The area under the COR curve = 0.92.
Conclusions: The resulting regression model has good prediction capability.
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References
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Copyright (c) 2026 Alexis Suárez Quesada, Yuveldris Saborit Oliva, Ezequiel Ernesto López Espinosa, Andrés José Quesada Vázquez, Alexis Álvarez Aliaga, Mailin Ortiz Suárez
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