Type 2 diabetes mellitus risk score in patients older than 45 years
Keywords:
type 2 diabetes mellitus, risk score, diagnosis.Abstract
Introduction: Diabetes mellitus has caused an increase in interest in the development of studies and research, currently enhanced by being considered a pandemic.
Objective: To develop a risk score for type 2 diabetes mellitus in patients older than 45 years.
Method: An analytical cohort study was carried out, with an analysis sample made up of 1021 patients and a validation sample with 891. The predictor variables were obtained through univariate analysis, by binary logistic regression and calculation of the odds ratio, with a significance level of p= 0.05. In the risk scale, the discriminant power was assessed through the area under the curve; to calibrate it, the omnibus tests, the R2 statistics of Cox, Snell, and Nagelkerke, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for p= 0.05 were calculated.
Results: A model was obtained that explains 77.6% of the independent variable, with a sensitivity of 94.9% and a specificity of 85.3%, the area under the curve had a range of 0.725 to 0.833. A risk score was developed which was statistically significant with X2= 17; p= 0.017 and a sensitivity of 96.8%.
Conclusions: The score developed predicts the risk of suffering type 2 diabetes mellitus in the patients studied.
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References
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18. Silvestre MP, Jiang Y, Volkova K, Chisholm H, Lee W, Poppitt SD. Evaluating FINDRISC as a screening tool for type 2 diabetes among overweight adults in the PREVIEW:NZ cohort. Prim Care Diabetes. 2017; 11(6):561-9. DOI: 10.1016/j.pcd.2017.07.003
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20. Awad SF, Dargham SR, Toumi AA, Dumit EM, El-Nahas KG, Al-Hamaq AO, et al. A diabetes risk score for Qatar utilizing a novel mathematical modeling approach to identify individuals at high risk for diabetes. Sci Rep. 2021; 11(1):1811. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-81385-3
21. Sinn DH, Kang D, Cho SJ, Paik SW, Guallar E, Cho J, et al. Enfermedad del hígado graso no alcohólico magro y desarrollo de diabetes: un estudio de cohorte. Eur J Endocrinol. 2019; 181(2):185-92. DOI: 10.1530/EJE-19-0143
22. Ming Z, Bingyuan W, Yu L, Xizhuo S, Xinping L, Chongjian W, et al. Cumulative increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus with increasing triglyceride glucose index in normal-weight people: The Rural Chinese Cohort Study. Cardiovasc Diabetol 2017; 16:30. DOI: 10.1186/s12933-017-0514-x
2. Lindström J, Tuomilehto J. The diabetes risk score: a practical tool to predict type 2 diabetes risk. Diabetes Care. 2003; 26(3):725-31. DOI: 10.2337/diacare.26.3.725
3. Burden ML, Burden AC. The American Diabetes Association Screening Questionnaire for Diabetes. Diabetes Care. 1994; 17(1):97. Disponible en: https://diabetesjournals.org/care/article-pdf/17/1/97/442471/17-1-97.pdf
4. Herman WH, Smith PJ, Thompson TJ, Engelgau MM, Aubert RE. A new and simple questionnaire to identify people at increased risk for undiagnosed diabetes. Diabetes Care. 1995; 18(3):382-7. DOI: 10.2337/diacare.18.3.382
5. Ruige JB, de Neeling JN, Kostense PJ, Bouter LM, Heine RJ. Performance of an NIDDM screening questionnaire based on symptoms and risk factors. Diabetes Care. 1997; 20(4):491-6. DOI: 10.2337/diacare.20.4.491
6. Von Eckardstein A, Schulte H, Assmann G. Risk for diabetes mellitus in middle-aged Caucasian male participants of the PROCAM study: implications for the definition of impaired fasting glucose by the American Diabetes Association. Prospective Cardiovascular Münster. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2000; 85(9):3101-8. DOI: 10.1210/jcem.85.9.6773
7. Kaushal K, Mahajan A, Parashar A, Dhadwal DS, Jaswal VMS, Jaret P, et al. Validity of Madras Diabetes Research Foundation: Indian Diabetes Risk Score for Screening of Diabetes Mellitus among Adult Population of Urban Field Practice Area, Indira Gandhi Medical College, Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India. Indian J Endocrinol Metab. 2017; 21(6):876-81. DOI: 10.4103/ijem.IJEM_361_16
8. Lim HM, Chia YC, Koay ZL. Performance of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and Modified Asian FINDRISC (ModAsian FINDRISC) for screening of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus and dysglycaemia in primary care. Prim Care Diabetes. 2020; 14(5):494-500. DOI: 10.1016/j.pcd.2020.02.008
9. Sulaiman N, Mahmoud I, Hussein A, Elbadawi S, Abusnana S, Zimmet P, et al. Diabetes risk score in the United Arab Emirates: a screening tool for the early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus. BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care. 2018; 6(1):e000489. DOI: 10.1136/bmjdrc-2017-000489
10. Bahijri S, Al-Raddadi R, Ajabnoor G, Jambi H, Al Ahmadi J, Borai A, et al. Dysglycemia risk score in Saudi Arabia: A tool to identify people at high future risk of developing type 2 diabetes. J Diabetes Investig. 2020; 11(4):844-55. DOI: 10.1111/jdi.13213
11. Bernabe-Ortiz A, Perel P, Miranda JJ, Smeeth L. Diagnostic accuracy of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) for undiagnosed T2DM in Peruvian population. Prim Care Diabetes. 2018; 12(6):517-25. DOI: 10.1016/j.pcd.2018.07.015
12. ElSayed NA, Aleppo G, Aroda VR, et al. 2. Classification and Diagnosis of Diabetes: Standards of Care in Diabetes-2023. Diabetes Care. 2023 [acceso: 16/03/2021); 46(Suppl 1):S19-S40. Disponible en: https://diabetesjournals.org/care/article/46/Supplement_1/S19/148056/2-Classification-and-Diagnosis-of-Diabetes
13. Collins GS, Dhiman P, Andaur Navarro CL, Ma J, Hooft L, Reitsma JB, et al. Protocol for development of a reporting guideline (TRIPOD-AI) and risk of bias tool (PROBAST-AI) for diagnostic and prognostic prediction model studies based on artificial intelligence. BMJ Open. 2021 [12/02/2022); 11(7):e048008. Disponible en: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34244270/
14. World Medical Association. World Medical Association Declaration of Helsinki: ethical principles for medical research involving human subjects. JAMA. 2013; 310(20):2191-4. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2013.281053
15. Nieto-Martínez R, González-Rivas JP, Ugel E, Marulanda MI, Durán M, Mechanick JI, Aschner P. External validation of the Finnish diabetes risk score in Venezuela using a national sample: The EVESCAM. Prim Care Diabetes. 2019; 13(6):574-82. DOI: 10.1016/j.pcd.2019.04.006
16. Lim HM, Chia YC, Koay ZL. Performance of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and Modified Asian FINDRISC (ModAsian FINDRISC) for screening of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus and dysglycaemia in primary care. Prim Care Diabetes. 2020; 14(5):494-500. DOI: 10.1016/j.pcd.2020.02.008
17. Heltberg A, Andersen JS, Sandholdt H, Siersma V, Kragstrup J, Ellervik C. Predictors of undiagnosed prevalent type 2 diabetes - The Danish General Suburban Population Study. Prim Care Diabetes. 2018; 12(1):13-22. DOI: 10.1016/j.pcd.2017.08.005
18. Silvestre MP, Jiang Y, Volkova K, Chisholm H, Lee W, Poppitt SD. Evaluating FINDRISC as a screening tool for type 2 diabetes among overweight adults in the PREVIEW:NZ cohort. Prim Care Diabetes. 2017; 11(6):561-9. DOI: 10.1016/j.pcd.2017.07.003
19. Stiglic G, Wang F, Sheikh A, Cilar L. Development and validation of the type 2 diabetes mellitus 10-year risk score prediction models from survey data. Prim Care Diabetes. 2021; 15(4):699-705. DOI: 10.1016/j.pcd.2021.04.008
20. Awad SF, Dargham SR, Toumi AA, Dumit EM, El-Nahas KG, Al-Hamaq AO, et al. A diabetes risk score for Qatar utilizing a novel mathematical modeling approach to identify individuals at high risk for diabetes. Sci Rep. 2021; 11(1):1811. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-81385-3
21. Sinn DH, Kang D, Cho SJ, Paik SW, Guallar E, Cho J, et al. Enfermedad del hígado graso no alcohólico magro y desarrollo de diabetes: un estudio de cohorte. Eur J Endocrinol. 2019; 181(2):185-92. DOI: 10.1530/EJE-19-0143
22. Ming Z, Bingyuan W, Yu L, Xizhuo S, Xinping L, Chongjian W, et al. Cumulative increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus with increasing triglyceride glucose index in normal-weight people: The Rural Chinese Cohort Study. Cardiovasc Diabetol 2017; 16:30. DOI: 10.1186/s12933-017-0514-x
Published
2023-10-19
How to Cite
1.
González Hernández M, Ruiz Nápoles JB, Velásquez Almaguer S. Type 2 diabetes mellitus risk score in patients older than 45 years. Rev Cubana Med Milit [Internet]. 2023 Oct. 19 [cited 2025 Mar. 13];52(4):e02302509. Available from: https://revmedmilitar.sld.cu/index.php/mil/article/view/2509
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